Warsaw, Kraków or Wrocław: new-build prices in Q3 2026

"Kraków is now more expensive than Warsaw" was one of the most shared property headlines in Poland this autumn. It is true for one data series and misleading for new builds. If you are choosing between Poland's three biggest new-build markets, you need to know which number you are looking at.

This article compares Warsaw, Kraków and Wrocław using three independent sources: developer offers tracked daily, the central bank's transaction data, and notarial deeds from a large agency. Every figure is dated.

Three kinds of price, three different answers

• Asking prices come from developers' price lists. Since September 2025 developers must publish the price of every flat, so these are now complete. They show what you will see in the sales office.
• Transaction prices come from sales actually completed. The NBP collects them each quarter from developers and agents. They show what buyers really paid, after discounts.
• Notarial prices come from deeds signed through one agency network (Metrohouse). They are timely but mostly cover resale flats.

Averages also mislead. A few very expensive penthouses lift the average, so the median, the middle flat in the list, is a better guide to what an ordinary buyer pays.

Asking prices in September 2026

According to BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl, reported by Rzeczpospolita, developer offers looked like this at the end of September 2026:

In Warsaw, flats newly launched in September were priced at an average of zł 23,200/m², far above the city median. That pulls the average up and shows where the new supply is: central and premium locations.

The mix of the offer tells a similar story. In Warsaw about 4,200 flats were priced at or below zł 15,000/m², while 5,200 were above zł 20,000/m². In Wrocław it was the other way round: about 5,100 flats at or below zł 15,000/m² and only 1,300 above zł 20,000/m².

For a 50 m² flat at the median price, that means about zł 875,000 in Warsaw, zł 800,000 in Kraków and zł 745,000 in Wrocław, before a parking space, a storage room and finishing.

Transaction prices: what buyers actually paid

The most recent full official data are for the second quarter of 2026. The NBP's report, published at the end of September, gives these figures for new flats:

All six figures come from the NBP’s own data file of average prices by city. The pattern is consistent: buyers pay about 6–9% less than the average asking price (9% in Warsaw, 8% in Wrocław, 6% in Kraków), partly through discounts and partly because cheaper flats sell first.

On the primary market, transaction prices rose 1.9% quarter on quarter in Warsaw and 1.5% in the six largest cities outside Warsaw. Year on year, Warsaw was up 2.4%, while the six cities were 0.4% lower. Adjusted for wage growth, real prices fell in all groups: by 2.8% in Warsaw and 5.4% in the six cities. In other words, flats are slowly becoming more affordable relative to incomes.

Notarial data for the third quarter

The Metrohouse and Credipass barometer, based on notarial deeds and mostly covering resale flats, gives the first look at Q3 2026:

• Warsaw: zł 16,823/m², up 6.3% on the quarter and 7.3% on the year
• Kraków: zł 14,090/m², up 0.3% on the quarter
• Wrocław: zł 12,086/m², up 1.4% on the quarter and 4.5% on the year

These are not new-build prices, but they show the same order and suggest Warsaw gained momentum over the summer.

So is Kraków more expensive than Warsaw

Otodom Analytics put the September average at zł 17,828/m² in Kraków and zł 17,767/m² in Warsaw. That series mixes new and resale listings, and finwire, which reported it, notes the zł 61 difference is within the margin of error. For new builds alone, every source above puts Warsaw clearly ahead: by about zł 1,500/m² at the median and by zł 2,700/m² on average.

What is true is that Kraków has caught up. In central districts, where building land is scarce, new-build prices come close to Warsaw levels.

What this means if you are buying

• Warsaw has the largest choice and the highest prices. The gap between the median and the average is wide, so district matters more than the city figure. Many of the more affordable projects are on the edges of the city, for example in Białołęka.
• Kraków has fewer flats on offer and prices close to Warsaw's in good locations. Budget buyers look south and east of the centre and at neighbouring towns.
• Wrocław is the cheapest of the three and has the most flats below zł 15,000/m². It is the market where an average budget still buys a new two-room flat inside the city.

Wherever you buy, the price per square metre is only the start. Add a parking space, which developers must now price separately, and finishing: most new flats come in developer standard, without floors or a kitchen. Our full cost calculator adds notary, court fees and finishing.

Supply and the months ahead

In the six largest markets developers had 64,377 unsold flats at the end of Q2 2026, while sales fell 8.3% on the quarter to 11,364. A large offer is good for negotiation, especially in projects where a flat has been listed for months. Price lists now include each flat's price history, so you can see whether a price has already been cut.

The NBP's report for Q3 2026 should be published around December. We will update these comparisons when it is.

To compare projects in each city with their checks and dates, open the city pages for Warsaw, Kraków and Wrocław.